Abstract
The turbulence in energy markets poses risks to energy suppliers, impacting profitability. Whilst risk mitigation is crucial for new projects, adapting existing infrastructure to evolving conditions incurs additional costs. For natural gas dependent economies, the natural gas industry faces exogenous uncertainties represented by demand and price fluctuations, and endogenous risks arising from inadequate proactive planning. This study evaluates the resilience of optimised Qatar’s natural gas monetisation infrastructure under different cases by examining the network’s ability to meet production targets amid process disruptions and market volatility. The analysed network includes 6 direct and indirect utilisation routes, represented by liquefaction, Haber-Bosch, methanol, gas-to-liquids, MTBE and urea processes to produce 9 products. First, process simulations and market assessments were used to obtain operational and market input data. Second, a mixed-integer linear programming model was used to optimise the natural gas allocation to processes under 9 case studies for a planning horizon of 10 year (2024-2033) with an objective of profitability maximisation. Third, the resilience% of processes and the overall network was estimated as per the model’s suggested allocation strategy to evaluate the infrastructure utilisation efficiency. Process resilience below 100% indicates vulnerability to disruptions. Incorporating operational and market data increased network resilience from 74% to at least 82%, highlighting the value of flexibility in planning. Furthermore, allowing dynamic natural gas allocation improved profitability by at least 27% compared to a baseline scenario lacking operational and market considerations. The findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies in ensuring long-term economic sustainability.