The hot rolled strip is a basic industrial product whose surface quality is of utmost importance. The condition of hot rolling work rolls that have been worn for a long time is the key factor. However, the traditional scheduling method controls risks to the surface quality by setting fixed rolling length limits and penalty scores, ignoring the wear condition differences caused by various products. This paper addresses this limitation by reconstructing a hot rolling-scheduling model, after developing a model for pre-assessment of the risk to surface quality based on the Weibull failure function, the deformation resistance formula, and real production data from a rolling plant. Additionally, Ant Colony Optimization (referred to as ACO) is employed to implement the scheduling model. The simulation results of the experiments demonstrate that, compared to the original scheduling method, the proposed one significantly reduces the cumulative risk of surface defects on products. This highlights the efficacy of the proposed method in improving scheduling decisions and surface quality of hot rolled strips.