LAPSE:2024.1627
Published Article
LAPSE:2024.1627
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) from Ethanol: An Integrated Systems Modeling Approach
Madelynn J. Watson, Aline V. da Silva, Pedro G. Machado, Celma O. Ribeiro, Cláudio A.O. Nascimento, Alexander W. Dowling
August 16, 2024. Originally submitted on July 9, 2024
This work explores the economic and environmental opportunities for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the Brazilian sugarcane industry. Brazil was one of the first countries to use biomass fuels for transportation and is currently the 2nd largest producer of the world’s bioethanol. Bioethanol produced from sugarcane can be upgraded to SAF via the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-certified pathway alcohol-to-jet (ATJ); however, at least two challenges exist for commercial implementation. First, technologies to produce bio-jet fuels cost more than their conventional fossil-based counterparts. Second, there is considerable uncertainty regarding returns on investment as the sugar and ethanol markets have been historically volatile. As such, we propose a new optimization model to inform risk-conscious investment decisions on SAF production capacity in sugarcane mills. Specifically, we propose a linear program (LP) to model an integrated sugarcane mill that can produce sugar, ethanol, or SAF. Then, using historical price data as scenarios, we determine optimal operation at different market scenarios. Based on the relationship between ethanol, sugar, and SAF prices, we show that the integrated sugarcane mill operates in four production regions. Furthermore, through sensitivity studies, we quantify the impact of SAF prices showing a premium SAF price of 2 $ L-1 results in 100% of scenarios favoring SAF production. These results allow us to guide SAF buyers or policymakers by showing the price point for SAF to become attractive for sugarcane mill integration.
Suggested Citation
Watson MJ, Silva AVD, Machado PG, Ribeiro CO, Nascimento CA, Dowling AW. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) from Ethanol: An Integrated Systems Modeling Approach. (2024). LAPSE:2024.1627
Author Affiliations
Watson MJ: University of Notre Dame, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Notre Dame, IN, US
Silva AVD: Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Institute of Economics, Campinas, SP, Brazil
Machado PG: University of São Paulo, Industrial Engineering Department, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Ribeiro CO: University of São Paulo, Industrial Engineering Department, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Nascimento CA: University of São Paulo, Chemical Engineering Department, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Dowling AW: University of Notre Dame, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Notre Dame, IN, US
Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
3
First Page
927
Last Page
932
Year
2024
Publication Date
2024-07-10
Version Comments
DOI Assigned
Other Meta
PII: 0927-0932-676101-SCT-3-2024, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2024.1627
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.154109
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Aug 16, 2024
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Aug 16, 2024
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Jul 9, 2024
 
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