Abstract
Modern mechanical recycling infrastructure for plastic is capable of processing only a small subset of waste plastics, reinforcing the need for parallel disposal methods such as landfilling and incineration. Emerging pyrolysis-based chemical technologies can “upcycle” plastic waste into high-value polymer and chemical products and process a broader range of waste plastics. In this work, we study the economic and environmental benefits of deploying an upcycling infrastructure in the continental United States for producing low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene (PP) from post-consumer mixed plastic waste. Our analysis aims to determine the market size that the infrastructure can create, the degree of circularity that it can achieve, the prices for waste and derived products it can propagate, and the environmental benefits of diverting plastic waste from landfill and incineration facilities it can produce. We apply a computational framework that integrates techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and value chain optimization. Our results demonstrate that the infrastructure generates an economy of nearly 20 billion USD and positive prices for plastic waste, opening opportunities for compensation to residents who provide plastic waste. Our analysis also indicates that the infrastructure can achieve a plastic-to-plastic degree of circularity of 34% and remains viable under various external factors (including technology efficiencies, capital investment budgets, and polymer market values). Finally, we present significant environmental benefits of upcycling over alternative landfill and incineration waste disposal methods, and comment on ongoing work expanding our modeling methodology to other chemical upcycling pathway case studies, including hydroformylation of specific plastics to chemicals.