LAPSE:2024.1571
Published Article
LAPSE:2024.1571
Stochastic Programming Models for Long-Term Energy Transition Planning
August 16, 2024. Originally submitted on July 9, 2024
With growing concern over the effects of green-house gas emissions, there has been an increase in emission-reducing policies by governments around the world, with over 70 countries having set net-zero emission goals by 2050-2060. These are ambitious goals that will require large investments into the expansion of renewable and low-carbon technologies. The decisions about which technologies should be invested in can be difficult to make since they are based on information about the future, which is uncertain. When considering emerging technologies, a source of uncertainty to consider is how the costs will develop over time. Learning curves are used to model the decrease in cost as the total installed capacity of a technology increases. However, the extent to which the cost decreases is uncertain. To address the uncertainty present in multiple aspects of the energy sector, multistage stochastic programming is employed considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties. It is observed in scenarios when costs of emerging technologies decrease to competitive prices, decisions to invest in these technologies should be made earlier to allow for the decrease in costs to be taken advantage of in the future. Noticeably, a wider variety of energy and biofuel technologies are invested in when uncertainty is included. Interestingly, it is also seen that there are lower carbon emissions when uncertainty is considered.
Record ID
Keywords
Design Under Uncertainty, Energy Systems, Stochastic Optimization
Subject
Suggested Citation
McDonald MA, Maravelias CT. Stochastic Programming Models for Long-Term Energy Transition Planning. (2024). LAPSE:2024.1571
Author Affiliations
McDonald MA: Princeton University, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States of America; DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Princeton University
Maravelias CT: Princeton University, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States of America; DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Princeton University; Princeton University, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment,
Maravelias CT: Princeton University, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States of America; DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Princeton University; Princeton University, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment,
Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
3
First Page
519
Last Page
526
Year
2024
Publication Date
2024-07-10
Version Comments
DOI Assigned
Other Meta
PII: 0519-0526-676058-SCT-3-2024, Publication Type: Journal Article
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Published Article
LAPSE:2024.1571
This Record
External Link
https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.107593
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