Abstract
The prediction of dissolved gas change trends in power transformer oil is very important for the diagnosis of transformer faults and ensuring its safe operation. Considering the time series and nonlinear features of the gas change trend, this paper proposes a novel robust extreme learning machine (ELM) model combining an improved data decomposition method for gas content forecasting. Firstly, the original data with nonlinear and sudden change properties will make the forecasting model unstable, and thus an improved variational modal decomposition (IPVMD) method is developed to decompose the original data to obtain the multiple modal dataset, in which the marine predators algorithm (MPA) optimization method is utilized to optimize the free parameters of the VMD. Second, the ELM as an efficient and easily implemented tool is used as the basic model for dissolved gas forecasting. However, the traditional ELM with mean square error (MSE) criterion is sensitive to the non-Gaussian measurement noise (or outliers). In addition, considering the nonlinear non-Gaussian properties of the dissolved gas, a new learning criterion, called extended maximum correntropy criterion (ExMCC), is defined by using an extended kernel function in the correntropy framework, and the ExMCC as a learning criterion is introduced into the ELM to develop a novel robust regression model (called ExMCC-ELM) to improve the ability of ELM to process mutational data. Third, a gas-in-oil prediction scheme is proposed by using the ExMCC-ELM performed on each modal obtained by the proposed IPVMD. Finally, we conducted several simulation studies on the measured data, and the results show that the proposed method has good predictive performance.