Abstract
Aiming at the problem that the energy consumption of the boiler system varies greatly under the flexible peaking requirements of coal-fired units, an energy consumption prediction model for the boiler system is established based on a Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). First, the Mean Impact Value (MIV) algorithm is used to simplify the input characteristics of the model and determine the key operating parameters that affect energy consumption. Secondly, the Snow Ablation Optimizer (SAO) with tent map, adaptive t-distribution, and the opposites learning mechanism is introduced to determine the parameters in the prediction model. On this basis, based on the operation data of an ultra-supercritical coal-fired unit in Xinjiang, China, the boiler energy consumption dataset under variable load is established based on the theory of fuel specific consumption. The proposed prediction model is used to predict and analyze the boiler energy consumption, and a comparison is made with other common prediction methods. The results show that compared with the LSSVM, BP, and ELM prediction models, the average Relative Root Mean Squared Errors (aRRMSE) of the LSSVM model using ISAO are reduced by 2.13%, 18.12%, and 40.3%, respectively. The prediction model established in this paper has good accuracy. It can predict the energy consumption distribution of the boiler system of the ultra-supercritical coal-fired unit under variable load more accurately.