LAPSE:2023.31222
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31222
One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods
April 18, 2023
This paper proposes an optimal ensemble method for one-day-ahead hourly wind power forecasting. The ensemble forecasting method is the most common method of meteorological forecasting. Several different forecasting models are combined to increase forecasting accuracy. The proposed optimal ensemble method has three stages. The first stage uses the k-means method to classify wind power generation data into five distinct categories. In the second stage, five single prediction models, including a K-nearest neighbors (KNN) model, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a support vector regression (SVR) model, and a random forest regression (RFR) model, are used to determine five categories of wind power data to generate a preliminary forecast. The final stage uses an optimal ensemble forecasting method for one-day-ahead hourly forecasting. This stage uses swarm-based intelligence (SBI) algorithms, including the particle swarm optimization (PSO), the salp swarm algorithm (SSA) and the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) to optimize the weight distribution for each single model. The final predicted value is the weighted sum of the integral for each individual model. The proposed method is applied to a 3.6 MW wind power generation system that is located in Changhua, Taiwan. The results show that the proposed optimal ensemble model gives more accurate forecasts than the single prediction models. When comparing to the other ensemble methods such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression methods, the proposed SBI algorithm also allows more accurate prediction.
Keywords
ensemble method, Particle Swarm Optimization, salp swarm algorithm, whale optimization algorithm, wind power forecasting
Suggested Citation
Huang CM, Chen SJ, Yang SP, Chen HJ. One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31222
Author Affiliations
Huang CM: Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan 710, Taiwan [ORCID]
Chen SJ: Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan 710, Taiwan [ORCID]
Yang SP: Department of Green Energy Technology Research Center, Kun Shan University, Tainan 710, Taiwan [ORCID]
Chen HJ: Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan 710, Taiwan
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
6
First Page
2688
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-03-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16062688, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31222
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doi:10.3390/en16062688
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Apr 18, 2023
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