LAPSE:2023.29378
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.29378
ELM-QR-Based Nonparametric Probabilistic Prediction Method for Wind Power
Honghai Niu, Yu Yang, Lingchao Zeng, Yiguo Li
April 13, 2023
Wind power has significant randomness. Probabilistic prediction of wind power is necessary to solve the problem of safe and stable power grid dispatching with the integration of large-scale wind power. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel nonparametric probabilistic prediction model for wind power based on extreme learning machine-quantile regression (ELM-QR). Firstly, the ELM-QR models of multiple quantiles are established, and then the new comprehensive index (NCI) is optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) to obtain the weighting coefficients corresponding to the lower and upper bounds of the prediction intervals. The final prediction interval is obtained by integrating the outputs of ELM-QR models and the weighting coefficients. Finally, case studies are carried out with the real wind farm operation data, simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can obtain narrower prediction intervals while ensuring high reliability. Through sensitivity analysis and comparison with other algorithms, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is further verified.
Keywords
comprehensive performance evaluation index, ELM-QR, extreme learning machine, nonparametric probabilistic prediction, Particle Swarm Optimization, quantile regression, wind power forecasting
Suggested Citation
Niu H, Yang Y, Zeng L, Li Y. ELM-QR-Based Nonparametric Probabilistic Prediction Method for Wind Power. (2023). LAPSE:2023.29378
Author Affiliations
Niu H: Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; Nanjing NARI-RELAYS Electric Co. Ltd., Nanjing 211102, China [ORCID]
Yang Y: Nanjing NARI-RELAYS Electric Co. Ltd., Nanjing 211102, China
Zeng L: Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Li Y: Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
3
First Page
701
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-01-29
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14030701, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en14030701
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