LAPSE:2023.25867
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.25867
Data-Driven Charging Demand Prediction at Public Charging Stations Using Supervised Machine Learning Regression Methods
Ahmad Almaghrebi, Fares Aljuheshi, Mostafa Rafaie, Kevin James, Mahmoud Alahmad
March 31, 2023
Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) user charging behavior has a significant influence on a distribution network and its reliability. Generally, monitoring energy consumption has become one of the most important factors in green and micro grids; therefore, predicting the charging demand of PEVs (the energy consumed during the charging session) could help to efficiently manage the electric grid. Consequently, three machine learning methods are applied in this research to predict the charging demand for the PEV user after a charging session starts. This approach is validated using a dataset consisting of seven years of charging events collected from public charging stations in the state of Nebraska, USA. The results show that the regression method, XGBoost, slightly outperforms the other methods in predicting the charging demand, with an RMSE equal to 6.68 kWh and R2 equal to 51.9%. The relative importance of input variables is also discussed, showing that the user’s historical average demand has the most predictive value. Accurate prediction of session charging demand, as opposed to the daily or hourly demand of multiple users, has many possible applications for utility companies and charging networks, including scheduling, grid stability, and smart grid integration.
Keywords
charging behavior, charging demand, data-driven, Machine Learning, Plug-in Electric Vehicle, public charging stations
Suggested Citation
Almaghrebi A, Aljuheshi F, Rafaie M, James K, Alahmad M. Data-Driven Charging Demand Prediction at Public Charging Stations Using Supervised Machine Learning Regression Methods. (2023). LAPSE:2023.25867
Author Affiliations
Almaghrebi A: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska−Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA [ORCID]
Aljuheshi F: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska−Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Rafaie M: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska−Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
James K: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska−Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Alahmad M: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska−Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
16
Article Number
E4231
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-08-16
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13164231, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.25867
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doi:10.3390/en13164231
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Mar 31, 2023
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