LAPSE:2023.25119
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.25119
A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition
Yixiang Ma, Lean Yu, Guoxing Zhang
March 28, 2023
To improve the prediction accuracy of short-term load series, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on a multi-trait-driven methodology and secondary decomposition. In detail, four steps were performed sequentially, i.e., data decomposition, secondary decomposition, individual prediction, and ensemble output, all of which were designed based on a multi-trait-driven methodology. In particular, the multi-period identification method and the judgment basis of secondary decomposition were designed to assist the construction of the hybrid model. In the numerical experiment, the short-term load data with 15 min intervals was collected as the research object. By analyzing the results of multi-step-ahead forecasting and the Dieboldāˆ’Mariano (DM) test, the proposed hybrid model was proven to outperform all benchmark models, which can be regarded as an effective solution for short-term load forecasting.
Keywords
energy forecasting, hybrid model, multi-trait-driven methodology, multiple periodicity patterns, secondary decomposition
Suggested Citation
Ma Y, Yu L, Zhang G. A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition. (2023). LAPSE:2023.25119
Author Affiliations
Ma Y: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Yu L: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China; WQ-UCAS Graduate School of Business, Binzhou Institute of Technology, Binzhou 256600, China; WQ-UCAS Joint Lab, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [ORCID]
Zhang G: School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
16
First Page
5875
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-08-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en15165875, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.25119
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doi:10.3390/en15165875
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