In this paper, a semi-analytic method is introduced to predict the deck-slamming probability and corresponding loads. This method is based on a nonlinear statistical approach that takes into account the linear and second-order components of the relative wave elevation up to the second order. The linear and second-order wave elevation is assumed to be a two-term Volterra series. The joint probability density function of the relative wave elevation and velocity are formulated using the Hermite-moment method, and the probability distributions of the wave crest and relative wave velocity are calculated. These probability distributions are verified using the data sampled from the linear and second-order relative wave elevation. Based on this formulation, the probabilities of deck slamming and slamming-induced loads are estimated. This method is applied to a tension leg platform (TLP) model, and the effects of the second-order component of the relative wave elevation on the deck slamming are investigated.