LAPSE:2021.0401
Published Article
LAPSE:2021.0401
Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt
May 25, 2021
In this paper, we study and investigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iraq and Egypt by using compartmental, logistic regression, and Gaussian models. We developed a generalized SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19, taking into account mildly and symptomatically infected individuals. The logistic and Gaussian models were utilized to forecast and predict the numbers of confirmed cases in both countries. We estimated the parameters that best fit the incidence data. The results provide discouraging forecasts for Iraq from 22 February to 8 October 2020 and for Egypt from 15 February to 8 October 2020. To provide a forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, we present various simulation scenarios for the expected peak and its timing using Gaussian and logistic regression models, where the predicted cases showed a reasonable agreement with the officially reported cases. We apply our compartmental model with a time-periodic transmission rate to predict the possible start of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt and the possible control measures. Our sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number allow us to conclude that the most effective way to prevent COVID-19 cases is by decreasing the transmission rate. The findings of this study could therefore assist Iraqi and Egyptian officials to intervene with the appropriate safety measures to cope with the increase of COVID-19 cases.
Keywords
compartmental model, control measures, COVID-19, Gaussian model, logistic growth model, parameter estimation, second wave, sensitivity analysis
Suggested Citation
Ibrahim MA, Al-Najafi A. Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt. (2021). LAPSE:2021.0401
Author Affiliations
Ibrahim MA: Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi Vértanúk Tere 1., H-6720 Szeged, Hungary; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt [ORCID]
Al-Najafi A: Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi Vértanúk Tere 1., H-6720 Szeged, Hungary [ORCID]
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
8
Issue
11
Article Number
E1400
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-11-02
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: pr8111400, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2021.0401
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doi:10.3390/pr8111400
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May 25, 2021
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
May 25, 2021
 
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May 25, 2021
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Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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