LAPSE:2019.1377
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.1377
The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties
Sheridan Few, Ajay Gambhir, Tamaryn Napp, Adam Hawkes, Stephane Mangeon, Dan Bernie, Jason Lowe
December 10, 2019
There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%⁻3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.
Keywords
climate change mitigation, energy economics, energy scenarios, energy system analysis, fugitive methane emissions, Natural Gas, shale gas, supply curves, TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM)
Suggested Citation
Few S, Gambhir A, Napp T, Hawkes A, Mangeon S, Bernie D, Lowe J. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties. (2019). LAPSE:2019.1377
Author Affiliations
Few S: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Gambhir A: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK [ORCID]
Napp T: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK [ORCID]
Hawkes A: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK [ORCID]
Mangeon S: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Bernie D: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Lowe J: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
2
Article Number
E158
Year
2017
Publication Date
2017-01-27
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en10020158, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.1377
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doi:10.3390/en10020158
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Dec 10, 2019
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CC BY 4.0
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Dec 10, 2019
 
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Dec 10, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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