LAPSE:2019.0361
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0361
Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting
Yuqi Dong, Xuejiao Ma, Chenchen Ma, Jianzhou Wang
February 27, 2019
Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the national economy and people’s livelihood through providing effective future plans and ensuring a reliable supply of sustainable electricity. Although considerable work has been done to select suitable models and optimize the model parameters to forecast the short-term electrical load, few models are built based on the characteristics of time series, which will have a great impact on the forecasting accuracy. For that reason, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on data decomposition considering periodicity, trend and randomness of the original electrical load time series data. Through preprocessing and analyzing the original time series, the generalized regression neural network optimized by genetic algorithm is used to forecast the short-term electrical load. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can not only achieve a good fitting ability, but it can also approximate the actual values when dealing with non-linear time series data with periodicity, trend and randomness.
Keywords
data decomposition, electrical load forecasting, generalized regression neural network, Genetic Algorithm
Suggested Citation
Dong Y, Ma X, Ma C, Wang J. Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0361
Author Affiliations
Dong Y: College of Law, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541004, China
Ma X: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China [ORCID]
Ma C: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Wang J: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
12
Article Number
E1050
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-12-14
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9121050, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0361
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doi:10.3390/en9121050
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Feb 27, 2019
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Feb 27, 2019
 
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Calvin Tsay
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