To support regional electricity markets, accurate and reliable energy demand (G) forecast models are vital stratagems for stakeholders in this sector. An online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) model integrated with a maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) algorithm was developed using daily G data obtained from three regional campuses (i.e., Toowoomba, Ipswich, and Springfield) at the University of Southern Queensland, Australia. In training the objective and benchmark models, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) was first employed to select the most significant lagged input variables that captured historical fluctuations in the G time-series data. To address the challenges of non-stationarities associated with the model development datasets, a MODWT technique was adopted to decompose the potential model inputs into their wavelet and scaling coefficients before executing the OS-ELM model. The MODWT-PACF-OS-ELM (MPOE) performance was tested and compared w... [more]

The aim of this review was to map synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development and energy efficiency and savings regarding exterior lighting. Exterior lighting, such as public road and street lighting, requires significant amounts of energy and hinders sustainable development through its increasing of light pollution, ecological impact, and global climate change. Interlinkages between indicators in sustainability and energy that have positive interactions will lead to a mutual reinforcement in the decision-making process, and vice versa, interlinkages between trade-offs may lead to unwanted and conflicting effects. Very few studies have presented a clear vision of how exterior lighting should be contributing to, and not counteracting, the sustainable development of our planet. This study was conducted through a theoretical and systematic analysis that examined the interactions between sustainable development and energy performance based on a framework using indicators and v... [more]

Renewable fuel standards for biofuels have been written into policy in the U.S. to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of transportation energy supply. Biofuel feedstocks sourced from within a regional market have the potential to also address sustainability goals. The U.S. Mid-Atlantic region could meet the advanced fuel designation specified in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), which requires a 50% reduction in GHG emissions relative to a gasoline baseline fuel, through ethanol produced from winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). We estimate technology configurations and winter barley grown on available winter fallow agricultural land in six Mid-Atlantic states. Using spatially weighted stochastic GHG emission estimates for winter barley supply from 374 counties and biorefinery data from a commercial dry-grind facility design with multiple co-products, we conclude that winter barley would meet RFS2 goals even with the U.S. EPA’s indirect land use change estimates. Using a conser... [more]

The paper reports a methodology developed to map energy consumption of the building stock at the urban scale on a GIS environment. Energy consumption has been investigated, focusing on the shift from the individual building scale to the district one with the purpose of identifying larger homogenous energy use areas for addressing policies and plans to improve the quality and the performance levels at the city scale. The urban planning zoning concept was extended to the energy issue to include the energy behavior of each zone that depends on the performance of its individual buildings. The methodology generates GIS maps providing a district scale visualization of energy consumption according to shared criteria. A case study in Bologna city (Italy) is provided. In the specific case, the last update of Emilia-Romagna regional urban planning regulation required a mapping action regarding energy efficiency of homogeneous urban portions defined by the General Urban Plan. The main achieved re... [more]

The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031−2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that th... [more]

Boosting the externalities across the water, energy, food, and waste (WEFW) sectors is challenging, especially considering tightening constraints such as population growth, climate change, resource-intensive lifestyles, increased waste production, sanitary crises and many others. The nexus approach supports the transition to a more sustainable future because intersectoral trade-offs can be reduced and externalities exploited, making imperative for decision makers, entrepreneurs, and civil society to simultaneously engage, with respect to all the components of the nexus. This research addressed intersectoral synergies and trade-offs in the case of the WEFW nexus in Romania, judging from the perspectives of entrepreneurial activity and economic results. The objective of this research was to explore the nexus in-depth by statistically analyzing the financial and economic indicators reported by active enterprises at county-level, based on the Romanian Ministry of Public Finance data. Resea... [more]

The participation of central banks in the fight against climate change has recently been advanced in several academic articles and policy papers. Since the emerging consensus is that climate change poses financial risks, the envisaged green central banking has a responsibility to address environmental sustainability as a means of promoting financial stability—an increasingly accepted goal of central banks in the post-financial crisis world. Thus far, the pro side of the argument is well represented in the literature, though often the benefits remain implicit: with the help of central banks via monetary and macroprudential policies, a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy would be somehow beneficial to all of us. With this article, we aim to add to this literature by looking at the costs and trade-offs of this course of action in light of the observation that the con side of the proposal has been only marginally addressed. We put forward a framework for the analysis of the costs and... [more]

California has set two ambitious targets aimed at achieving a high level of decarbonization in the coming decades, namely (i) to generate 60% and 100% of its electricity using renewable energy (RE) technologies, respectively, by 2030 and by 2045, and (ii) introducing at least 5 million zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030, as a first step towards all new vehicles being ZEVs by 2035. In addition, in California, photovoltaics (PVs) coupled with lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are, respectively, the most promising candidates for new RE installations and new ZEVs, respectively. However, concerns have been voiced about how meeting both targets at the same time could potentially negatively affect the electricity grid’s stability, and hence also its overall energy and carbon performance. This paper addresses those concerns by presenting a thorough life-cycle carbon emission and energy analysis based on an original grid balancing model that uses a combin... [more]

The residential building stock represents one of the major players in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions; thus, it is fundamental to reduce the energy used. Simulation tools are becoming more and more accurate in compliance with the new requirements both at the single-building and at the district scale, although they are not affordable by non-specialist users such as policymakers. The research concerns the evaluation of the energy demand for space heating for a historical district that is representative of the Italian building stock. The work compares dynamic and specialist-oriented urban scale tools such as Energy Urban Resistance Capacitance Approach (EUReCA) and City Energy Analyst (CEA)) as well as a quasi-steady-state calculation method (Excel spreadsheet), which is more affordable for non-specialist users. The work was carried out to assess the possible deviation of the results between the dynamic and quasi-steady-state calculation methods, as well as to identify any limits... [more]

Natural gas is expected to play an important role in the coming low-carbon energy transition. However, conventional gas resources are gradually being replaced by unconventional ones and a question remains: to what extent is net-energy production impacted by the use of lower-quality energy sources? This aspect of the energy transition was only partially explored in previous discussions. To fill this gap, this paper incorporates standard energy-return-on-investment (EROI) estimates and dynamic functions into the GlobalShift bottom-up model at a global level. We find that the energy necessary to produce gas (including direct and indirect energy and material costs) corresponds to 6.7% of the gross energy produced at present, and is growing at an exponential rate: by 2050, it will reach 23.7%. Our results highlight the necessity of viewing the energy transition through the net-energy prism and call for a greater number of EROI studies.

The recent trend in New Economics is the establishment of measures of sustainable wealth and welfare which take into account all the parameters of economic, environmental, and social life and progress, juxtaposed to the conventional and myopic GDP. This review summarizes results from a series of recent papers in the energy-growth nexus field, which have perused a proxy for the sustainable GDP instead of the conventional GDP and discusses the difference in results and policy implications. The energy-growth nexus field itself has generated a bulk of work since the seminal study of Kraft and Kraft (1978), but still the field needs new perspectives in order to generate results with a consensus. The bidirectional causality between energy consumption and sustainable economy provides evidence for the Feedback Hypothesis, a statement that essentially warns that it is too early for sustainability to be feasible without fossil energy consumption, and vice versa. The unidirectional causality reve... [more]

The sustainability transition of rural areas is a must due to rapid climate changes and biodiversity loss. Given the limited resources of rural communities, policy should facilitate a just sustainability transition of the EU rural areas. The analysis of EU development policies, past performance and the envisaged scope of reform, presented in this study point to a serious inconsistency between the declaration and implementation of relevant policies. Namely, the marginal role rural areas perform in common agricultural policy and cohesion policy; a result of the lack of a complex approach to rural development. The analysis was based on the concept of good governance and took a multi-level perspective. It advocates territorial justice as an approach that should be at the core of creating a comprehensive policy for rural areas in the EU, including their diversity and empowering local communities to choose the transition pathway that is most in line with their current situation and developme... [more]

The paper aims to identify the significant heterogeneity of socio-economic rural development in Poland by identifying different types of rural areas and clarifying the existing diversity. This objective requires the following: (1) defining the rural development in Polish conditions, (2) abandoning the urban−rural continuum concept, and (3) conducting an analysis involving data aggregated from the local administrative units (2173 gminas/communes). The approach is exploratory and is limited to two questions elaborating the main problem related to the scale and character of rural variety: What socio-economic types of rural area are found in Poland? How are they distributed spatially? The statistical procedure is based on Diday’s dynamic clouds typological analysis. This yielded seven types of rural areas that exhaust their diversity. The main indicator of the character of the different types is related to the level of deagrarianisation of the local economy. The authors argue that the a pr... [more]

Ocean energy is a promising source of clean renewable energy, with clear development targets set by the European Commission. However, the ocean energy sector faces non-technological challenges and opportunities that are frequently overlooked in deployment plans. The present study aimed to provide a critical evaluation of the ocean energy sector’s legal, institutional, and political frameworks with an identification and analysis of both barriers and enabling features for the deployment of ocean energy. In the first stage, a literature review on the current political and regulatory frameworks of a set of European countries was carried out, setting the basis for the main challenges and enabling factors faced by the sector. Secondly, a critical analysis of the main non-technological barriers and enablers was performed, which was supported by questionnaires sent to regulators, technology developers, and test-site managers. This questionnaire allowed us to collect and integrate the views, pe... [more]

The principal goal of this paper is to investigate the views of local government officials on revitalisation priorities in Polish municipalities. To accomplish this, the perception of revitalisation objectives by local government representatives (who, according to Polish regulations, are responsible for revitalisation planning and carrying it out) was examined. A catalogue of revitalisation objectives, which were assessed by the respondents, was drawn up on the basis of a review of research on the conceptualisation and measurement of sustainable revitalisation and social sustainability at the local level. Exploratory factor analysis was the method used in the study. In total, the list of the examined revitalisation objectives includes 26 objectives related to the following revitalisation dimensions: infrastructure, community, economy, environment, space, co-governance, and inclusion. A survey of the executive bodies of 573 municipalities in Poland revealed a discrepancy between the sus... [more]

A key question for European energy transition is which forms of renewable energy technologies will play a central role in this process. The recent dynamic growth in offshore wind power together with the vast wind energy potential of the European seas, including the Baltic Sea, make this technology an increasingly attractive and viable option. Considering the high installation and connection costs, government support is considered essential for the development of offshore wind power. The aim of this article is to analyze Poland’s public policy tools, which govern offshore wind farm development, and to present them from a wider geostrategic perspective. Authors identify, classify, and evaluate individual public policy tools with the use of multi-criteria and multi-dimensional methods while explaining their impact on offshore wind development in Poland. The analysis of the individual tools has shown that the currently applied tools give a high probability of achieving public policy object... [more]

The purpose of study was to find out how electric bikes are perceived in Poland, a country with a high level of motorisation and a low cycling culture. A key question was to investigate whether differences in perceptions between traditional (unassisted) and electrically assisted bicycles could bring about greater interest in bicycle transport. The analysis was based on the results of a CAWI survey analysing the perception of the electric bicycle in comparison with the traditional bicycle and the car. Its undoubted advantages are marginalised (only 14% of respondents considered it more practical). The position of the electric bicycle seemed to increase in the opinion of the surveyed only when used by elderly people with poorer fitness, as something that can encourage them to cycle. In general evaluations, it was the traditional bicycle that was seen as better for health. The presented results may serve as a signal that electric bicycles need more promotion in Poland, especially in terms... [more]

The optimization of the energy portfolio for a small, open, landlocked economy with rather limited fossil resources is a complex task because it must find a long-range, sustainable balance between the various goals of society under the constant pressure of different interest groups. The opinions of independent, informed experts could be an essential input in the decision-making process. The goal of this research was to determine the relative importance of the values and goals potentially accompanying projects, based on the utilization of bioenergy. The current research is based on a wide-ranging survey of 65 non-partisan experts, applying the Pareto analytic hierarchy process to ensure the unbiased prioritization of project segments. The results of the survey put a spotlight on the importance of the economic role of bioenergy projects. Contrary to previous expectations and considerations, the social functions of these projects have hitherto been given relatively little importance. The... [more]

Efforts to tackle climate change are taking place on multiple fronts. This includes trade, an increasingly important defining feature of the global economy. In recent years, free trade agreements (FTAs) have become the primary mechanism of trade policy and diplomacy. This study examines the development of climate action measures in FTAs and discusses what difference they can make to tackling climate change. Its primary source research is based on an in-depth examination of FTAs in force up to 2020. This paper is structured around a number of research questions forming around three main inter-related areas of enquiry. Firstly, to what extent are these provisions in FTAs essentially derivative of energy’s connections with climate change, and thus part of a wider trade−climate−energy nexus? Secondly, what kinds of climate action are FTAs specifically promoting, and how effective a potential positive impact may we expect these to have? Thirdly, are certain climate action norms being promot... [more]

Water and electricity have a unique relationship in the modern world as one requires the other in a complex system of networks to supply the utility to the customers. This energy−water interaction is especially peculiar in the Gulf Cooperation Council, where there are limited water resources, but extremely high use rates. Qatar provides a unique case in terms of extreme water scarcity and excessive water use. To understand the intricate network, this paper establishes an updated and comprehensive qualitative model of the water system in the country with the help of a water balance and system dynamics (causal loop diagram) methodology. Regression estimates are then used to estimate future water and energy consumption in addition to carbon dioxide emissions until the year 2050. Finally, system dynamics (stock and flow diagram) is used to determine the supply impacts of efficiency policies including limiting of groundwater abstraction to only 50 million m3, reduction of water consumption... [more]

Since the beginning of the 1990s, due to international regulations on air quality, a large number of flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) installations have been constructed in the Polish coal-fired power industry. Thanks to that, SO2 capture in this industry increased to ca. 90%. Since wet lime or fluidized bed boilers were mostly used for FGD purposes, a significant increase in the domestic demand for lime sorbents has been reported. Between 1994 and 2019, it has increased from virtually zero before 1994 to about 3.3−3.4 million tpy (tonnes per year) today. On the basis of official governmental data and completed surveys of the Polish power companies, the paper analyses the process of the implementation of FGD in Poland along with limestone sorbents consumption and FGD gypsum production in the Polish coal-fired power plants. It also presents the current and potential limestone resource base for production of limestone sorbents applied in FGD. Electric energy mix in Poland is expected to b... [more]

Despite the recent expansion of the scope, the main pillars of energy security remain physical supply and price components. This paper highlights the novel developments of this notion, including the exporters’ perspective, relevant challenges, indicators, and policies. Furthermore, we apply the portfolio theory approach to five Gulf Cooperation Council countries to construct portfolios representing the trade-offs between maximizing returns (oil export growth or export prices) and minimizing risks (standard deviation of return variables). We assess portfolios’ resilience to external demand and logistical shocks by running several disruptive scenarios. We find that oil exporters adopt a balanced approach to the risks associated with export volume growth and pricing, which is different from some major oil importers that prioritize either the physical supply or price stability. Simulation scenarios of increasing oil exports to China would have a significant impact mainly on Saudi Arabia an... [more]

Important changes are underway in the U.S. power industry in the way that electricity is sourced, transported, and utilized. Disruption from extreme weather events and cybersecurity events is bringing new scrutiny to power-system resilience. Recognizing the complex social and technical aspects that are involved, this article provides a meta-level framework for coherently evaluating and making decisions about power-system resilience. It does so by examining net-zero carbon strategies with quantitative, qualitative, and integrative dimensions across discrete location-specific systems and timescales. The generalizable framework is designed with a flexibility and logic that allows for refinement to accompany stakeholder review processes and highly localized decision-making. To highlight the framework’s applicability across multiple timescales, processes, and types of knowledge, power system outages are reviewed for extreme weather events, including 2021 and 2011 winter storms that impacted... [more]

In Poland, the development of photovoltaic (PV) installations is an important element in the development of the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) sector and supports the prosumer power industry. The purpose of the article is to present a case study of the PROSUMENT program. It analyzes the data available to date on the development of the PV market in Poland. Apart from the costs of installing the PV systems, the article analyzes the profitability of investment for different micro-power installation capacities. A calculation for micro-power installations subsidized under the PROSUMENT program for various PV capacities is presented, along with the actual amount of the subsidy. The adopted calculation methodology is a comparative verification analysis of the investment cost estimate for a for the two studied PV facilities, i.e., Micro-power installation 1 and Micro-power installation 2. The building’s annual energy demand was adopted at the same level for both examples, with fixed active ene... [more]

Most renewable energy (RE) studies focus on technology readiness, environmental benefits and/or cost savings. The market permeation, viability and adoption of RE technologies such as micro hydropower (MHP), however, require the alignment of other interrelated factors, such as the socio-technical, institutional and political dimensions. This is particularly the case where the energy recovery potential in decentralised water networks is being explored as part of a wholesome sustainability strategy by and for individual and communal prosumers. This study employs a socio-technical approach to understand factors that influence the perceived viability and adoption of MHP in group water-energy schemes. Methods included a progressive literature review to formulate a conceptual framework for the implementation of MHP systems. The framework was validated using survey data from representative stakeholders from groups schemes in Ireland and Spain. These stakeholders were sampled and surveyed at th... [more]