Abstract
Decarbonizing industries could significantly increase electricity demand, necessitating strategic grid expansion. This study evaluates the impact of decarbonizing the Pulp and Paper Sector under four 2050 scenarios: carbon capture, biomass-based, direct electrification, and indirect electrification. A bottom-up approach is employed to estimate 2020 final energy demand by heat grade and subsector. Both final and primary energy demand systems are modeled, accounting for the efficiencies of end-use technologies and primary energy transformation processes. The analysis compares primary renewable energy demand (electricity and biomass) normalized per ton of equivalent CO2 avoided against a business-as-usual scenario. It also considers the requirements for wood residues, organic waste, and CO2 storage. The carbon capture scenario, while low in electricity demand, requires significant organic waste for renewable natural gas production and 2.6 Mt of CO2 storage to offset direct and indirect emissions, making it the least feasible due to uncertainties around carbon storage in Quebec. Among the remaining scenarios, the direct electrification stands out by offering the lowest primary energy demand. It combines heat pumps with electric boilers for steam production and lime kilns are converted to a plasma-based solution. The study also includes a sensitivity analysis highlighting the potential of energy efficiency measures to ease the burden of decarbonization.