LAPSE:2021.0328
Published Article
LAPSE:2021.0328
Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in South Korea: The Impacts of Travel Restrictions, Social Distancing, and Early Detection
Byul Nim Kim, Eunjung Kim, Sunmi Lee, Chunyoung Oh
April 30, 2021
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a severe threat to public health officials all around the world. The early COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. The number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (epicenter), whereas the spread was much slower in the rest of Korea. A two-patch mathematical model with a mobility matrix is developed to capture this significant spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 outbreaks from 18 February to 24 March 2020. The mobility matrix is taken from the movement data provided by the Korea Transport Institute (KOTI). Some of the essential patch-specific parameters are estimated through cumulative confirmed cases, including the transmission rates and the basic reproduction numbers (local and global). Our simulations show that travel restrictions between the epicenter and the rest of Korea effectively prevented massive outbreaks in the rest of Korea. Furthermore, we explore the effectiveness of several additional strategies for the mitigation and suppression of Covid-19 spread in Korea, such as implementing social distancing and early diagnostic interventions.
Keywords
basic reproduction number, COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Korea, cumulative incidence, early diagnostic interventions, mobility data, social distancing, travel restrictions, two-patch mathematical model
Suggested Citation
Kim BN, Kim E, Lee S, Oh C. Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in South Korea: The Impacts of Travel Restrictions, Social Distancing, and Early Detection. (2021). LAPSE:2021.0328
Author Affiliations
Kim BN: Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
Kim E: Natural Product Informatics Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Gangneung 25451, Korea
Lee S: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea [ORCID]
Oh C: Department of Mathematics Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
8
Issue
10
Article Number
E1304
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-10-17
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
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Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: pr8101304, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2021.0328
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doi:10.3390/pr8101304
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Apr 30, 2021
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 30, 2021
 
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Apr 30, 2021
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Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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