LAPSE:2021.0323
Published Article
LAPSE:2021.0323
A Two-Patch Mathematical Model for Temperature-Dependent Dengue Transmission Dynamics
Jung Eun Kim, Yongin Choi, James Slghee Kim, Sunmi Lee, Chang Hyeong Lee
April 30, 2021
Dengue fever has been a threat to public health not only in tropical regions but non-tropical regions due to recent climate change. Motivated by a recent dengue outbreak in Japan, we develop a two-patch model for dengue transmission associated with temperature-dependent parameters. The two patches represent a park area where mosquitoes prevail and a residential area where people live. Based on climate change scenarios, we investigate the dengue transmission dynamics between the patches. We employ an optimal control method to implement proper control measures in the two-patch model. We find that blockage between two patches for a short-term period is effective in a certain degree for the disease control, but to obtain a significant control effect of the disease, a long-term blockage should be implemented. Moreover, the control strategies such as vector control and transmission control are very effective, if they are implemented right before the summer outbreak. We also investigate the cost-effectiveness of control strategies such as vaccination, vector control and virus transmission control. We find that vector control and virus transmission control are more cost-effective than vaccination in case of Korea.
Keywords
climate change, control strategies, dengue transmission, patch model, temperature-dependent parameters
Suggested Citation
Kim JE, Choi Y, Kim JS, Lee S, Lee CH. A Two-Patch Mathematical Model for Temperature-Dependent Dengue Transmission Dynamics. (2021). LAPSE:2021.0323
Author Affiliations
Kim JE: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 44919, Korea
Choi Y: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 44919, Korea
Kim JS: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 44919, Korea
Lee S: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea [ORCID]
Lee CH: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 44919, Korea [ORCID]
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
8
Issue
7
Article Number
E781
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-07-03
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
Version Comments
Original Submission
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PII: pr8070781, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2021.0323
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doi:10.3390/pr8070781
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Apr 30, 2021
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 30, 2021
 
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Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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