LAPSE:2021.0192
Published Article
LAPSE:2021.0192
Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study
Vishvas H. Chalishazar, Ted K. A. Brekken, Darin Johnson, Kent Yu, James Newell, King Chin, Rob Weik, Emilie Dierickx, Matthew Craven, Maty Sauter, Andrey Olennikov, Jennifer Galaway, Ann Radil
April 16, 2021
Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $180 million with an annualized risk of $90,000 given the event’s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system—i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million.
Keywords
economic risk analysis, monte carlo simulations, peak ground acceleration, power transmission system, seismic resilience
Suggested Citation
Chalishazar VH, Brekken TKA, Johnson D, Yu K, Newell J, Chin K, Weik R, Dierickx E, Craven M, Sauter M, Olennikov A, Galaway J, Radil A. Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study. (2021). LAPSE:2021.0192
Author Affiliations
Chalishazar VH: Electricity Security Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA [ORCID]
Brekken TKA: Professor in Energy Systems, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330, USA
Johnson D: BIS Consulting L.L.C, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
Yu K: SEFT Consulting Group, Portland, OR 97005, USA
Newell J: SEFT Consulting Group, Portland, OR 97005, USA
Chin K: GeoEngineers Inc., Seattle, WA 98121, USA
Weik R: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Dierickx E: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Craven M: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Sauter M: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Olennikov A: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Galaway J: Portland General Electric, Portland, OR 97201, USA
Radil A: Slalom L.L.C., Portland, OR 97205, USA
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
8
Issue
10
Article Number
E1200
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-09-23
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: pr8101200, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2021.0192
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doi:10.3390/pr8101200
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Apr 16, 2021
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CC BY 4.0
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Apr 16, 2021
 
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Apr 16, 2021
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https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2021.0192
 
Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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