LAPSE:2019.1541
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.1541
A Smart Forecasting Approach to District Energy Management
Baris Yuce, Monjur Mourshed, Yacine Rezgui
December 10, 2019
This study presents a model for district-level electricity demand forecasting using a set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (parallel ANNs) based on current energy loads and social parameters such as occupancy. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the inputs of the ANN by considering external weather conditions, occupancy type, main income providers’ employment status and related variables for the fuel poverty index. Moreover, a detailed parameter tuning is conducted using various configurations for each individual ANN. The study also demonstrates the strength of the parallel ANN models in different seasons of the years. In the proposed district level energy forecasting model, the training and testing stages of parallel ANNs utilise dataset of a group of six buildings. The aim of each individual ANN is to predict electricity consumption and the aggregated demand in sub-hourly time-steps. The inputs of each ANN are determined using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) methods. The accuracy and consistency of ANN predictions are evaluated using Pearson coefficient and average percentage error, and against four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The lowest prediction error for the aggregated demand is about 4.51% for winter season and the largest prediction error is found as 8.82% for spring season. The results demonstrate that peak demand can be predicted successfully, and utilised to forecast and provide demand-side flexibility to the aggregators for effective management of district energy systems.
Keywords
ANN, demand forecasting, district energy management, MRA, PCA, smart cities, smart grid
Suggested Citation
Yuce B, Mourshed M, Rezgui Y. A Smart Forecasting Approach to District Energy Management. (2019). LAPSE:2019.1541
Author Affiliations
Yuce B: BRE Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 3AA, UK; College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, School of Engineering, Streatham Campus University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QJ, UK
Mourshed M: BRE Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 3AA, UK [ORCID]
Rezgui Y: BRE Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 3AA, UK
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
8
Article Number
E1073
Year
2017
Publication Date
2017-07-25
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en10081073, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.1541
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doi:10.3390/en10081073
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Dec 10, 2019
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
Dec 10, 2019
 
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Dec 10, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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