LAPSE:2019.0753
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0753
Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios
Ajay Gambhir, Laurent Drouet, David McCollum, Tamaryn Napp, Dan Bernie, Adam Hawkes, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Keywan Riahi, Valentina Bosetti, Jason Lowe
July 26, 2019
This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5⁻4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
Keywords
climate change mitigation, low-carbon scenarios, mitigation feasibility
Suggested Citation
Gambhir A, Drouet L, McCollum D, Napp T, Bernie D, Hawkes A, Fricko O, Havlik P, Riahi K, Bosetti V, Lowe J. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0753
Author Affiliations
Gambhir A: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AA, UK [ORCID]
Drouet L: Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy
McCollum D: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Napp T: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AA, UK [ORCID]
Bernie D: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Hawkes A: Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK [ORCID]
Fricko O: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Havlik P: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Riahi K: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Institute of Thermal Engineering, Graz University of Technology, Infeldgasse 25b, 8010 Graz, Austria
Bosetti V: Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy; Department of Economics, Bocconi University, 20136 Milan, Italy
Lowe J: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
1
Article Number
E89
Year
2017
Publication Date
2017-01-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en10010089, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0753
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doi:10.3390/en10010089
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Jul 26, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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