LAPSE:2019.0705
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0705
Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting
Weide Li, Xuan Yang, Hao Li, Lili Su
July 26, 2019
Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), seasonal adjustment (S), cross validation (C), general regression neural network (GRNN) and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR). The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW) and Victorian State (VIC) in Australia). Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.
Keywords
electricity demand forecasting, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), support vector machine (SVM)
Suggested Citation
Li W, Yang X, Li H, Su L. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0705
Author Affiliations
Li W: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China [ORCID]
Yang X: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Li H: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Su L: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
1
Article Number
E44
Year
2017
Publication Date
2017-01-03
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en10010044, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0705
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doi:10.3390/en10010044
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Jul 26, 2019
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Jul 26, 2019
 
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Calvin Tsay
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