Reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions has become a global consensus in response to global warming and climate change, especially to China, the largest CO₂ emitter in the world. Most studies have focused on CO₂ emissions from the production sector, however, the household sector plays an important role in the total energy-related CO₂ emissions. This study formulates an integrated model based on logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate household energy consumption and CO₂ emissions under different conditions. Results show the following: (1) the integrated model performs well in calculating the contribution of influencing factors on household CO₂ emissions and analyzing the options for CO₂ emission mitigation; (2) the increase in income is the dominant driving force of household CO₂ emissions, and as a result of the improved standard of living in China a sustained increase in household CO₂ emissions can be expected; (3) with decreasing energy intensity, CO₂ emissions will decrease to 404.26 Mt-CO₂ in 2020, which is 9.84% lower than the emissions in 2014; (4) the reduction potential by developing non-fossil energy sources is limited, and raising the rate of urbanization cannot reduce the household CO₂ emission under the comprehensive influence of other factors.