LAPSE:2019.0326
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0326
Ensemble Learning Approach for Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Power Generation
Azhar Ahmed Mohammed, Zeyar Aung
February 27, 2019
Probabilistic forecasting accounts for the uncertainty in prediction that arises from inaccurate input data due to measurement errors, as well as the inherent inaccuracy of a prediction model. Because of the variable nature of renewable power generation depending on weather conditions, probabilistic forecasting is well suited to it. For a grid-tied solar farm, it is increasingly important to forecast the solar power generation several hours ahead. In this study, we propose three different methods for ensemble probabilistic forecasting, derived from seven individual machine learning models, to generate 24-h ahead solar power forecasts. We have shown that while all of the individual machine learning models are more accurate than the traditional benchmark models, like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the ensemble models offer even more accurate results than any individual machine learning model alone does. Furthermore, it is observed that running separate models on the data belonging to the same hour of the day vastly improves the accuracy of the results. Getting more accurate forecasts will help the stakeholders come up with better decisions in resource planning and control when large-scale solar farms are integrated into the power grid.
Keywords
ensemble models, Machine Learning, probabilistic forecasting, regression, solar power
Suggested Citation
Ahmed Mohammed A, Aung Z. Ensemble Learning Approach for Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Power Generation. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0326
Author Affiliations
Ahmed Mohammed A: Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, 54224 Abu Dhabi, UAE
Aung Z: Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, 54224 Abu Dhabi, UAE [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
12
Article Number
E1017
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-12-01
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en9121017, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0326
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doi:10.3390/en9121017
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Feb 27, 2019
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CC BY 4.0
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Feb 27, 2019
 
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Calvin Tsay
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