LAPSE:2019.0325
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0325
Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using EEMD and RVM with Adaptive PSO-Based Kernels
Taiyong Li, Min Zhou, Chaoqi Guo, Min Luo, Jiang Wu, Fan Pan, Quanyi Tao, Ting He
February 27, 2019
Crude oil, as one of the most important energy sources in the world, plays a crucial role in global economic events. An accurate prediction for crude oil price is an interesting and challenging task for enterprises, governments, investors, and researchers. To cope with this issue, in this paper, we proposed a method integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO), and relevance vector machine (RVM)—namely, EEMD-APSO-RVM—to predict crude oil price based on the “decomposition and ensemble” framework. Specifically, the raw time series of crude oil price were firstly decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue by EEMD. Then, RVM with combined kernels was applied to predict target value for the residue and each IMF individually. To improve the prediction performance of each component, an extended particle swarm optimization (PSO) was utilized to simultaneously optimize the weights and parameters of single kernels for the combined kernel of RVM. Finally, simple addition was used to aggregate all the predicted results of components into an ensemble result as the final result. Extensive experiments were conducted on the crude oil spot price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to illustrate and evaluate the proposed method. The experimental results are superior to those by several state-of-the-art benchmark methods in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and directional statistic (Dstat), showing that the proposed EEMD-APSO-RVM is promising for forecasting crude oil price.
Keywords
crude oil price, energy forecasting, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), kernel methods, particle swarm optimization (PSO), relevance vector machine (RVM)
Suggested Citation
Li T, Zhou M, Guo C, Luo M, Wu J, Pan F, Tao Q, He T. Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using EEMD and RVM with Adaptive PSO-Based Kernels. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0325
Author Affiliations
Li T: School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China; Institute of Chinese Payment System, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Cheng [ORCID]
Zhou M: School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China; School of Computer Science, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
Guo C: School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China
Luo M: School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China
Wu J: School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China
Pan F: College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu 610065, China
Tao Q: Huaan Video Technology Co., Ltd., Building 6, 399 Western Fucheng Avenue, Chengdu 610041, China
He T: Department of Viral Vaccine, Chengdu Institute of Biological Products Co., Ltd., China National Biotech Group, 379 Section 3, Jinhua Road, Chengdu 610023, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
12
Article Number
E1014
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-12-01
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en9121014, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0325
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doi:10.3390/en9121014
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Feb 27, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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