LAPSE:2019.0241
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0241
Forecasting Electricity Market Risk Using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)—Based Multiscale Methodology
Kaijian He, Hongqian Wang, Jiangze Du, Yingchao Zou
February 5, 2019
The electricity market has experienced an increasing level of deregulation and reform over the years. There is an increasing level of electricity price fluctuation, uncertainty, and risk exposure in the marketplace. Traditional risk measurement models based on the homogeneous and efficient market assumption no longer suffice, facing the increasing level of accuracy and reliability requirements. In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)-based Value at Risk (VaR) model to estimate the downside risk measure in the electricity market. The proposed model investigates and models the inherent multiscale market risk structure. The EMD model is introduced to decompose the electricity time series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) with distinct multiscale characteristics. The Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) model is used to model the individual risk factors across different scales. Experimental results using different models in the Australian electricity markets show that EMD-EWMA models based on Student’s t distribution achieves the best performance, and outperforms the benchmark EWMA model significantly in terms of model reliability and predictive accuracy.
Keywords
electricity market risk, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), Value at Risk (VaR)
Suggested Citation
He K, Wang H, Du J, Zou Y. Forecasting Electricity Market Risk Using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)—Based Multiscale Methodology. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0241
Author Affiliations
He K: School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China
Wang H: Payment and Settlement Department, Software Center, Bank of China, Beijing 100094, China
Du J: School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Zou Y: College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China; School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
11
Article Number
E931
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-11-09
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9110931, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0241
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doi:10.3390/en9110931
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Calvin Tsay
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