LAPSE:2019.0154
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0154
Analysis and Modeling for Short- to Medium-Term Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Manifold Learning Principal Component Model and Comparison with Classical Statistical Models (SARIMAX, Exponential Smoothing) and Artificial Intelligence Models (ANN, SVM): Th
George P. Papaioannou, Christos Dikaiakos, Anargyros Dramountanis, Panagiotis G. Papaioannou
January 30, 2019
In this work we propose a new hybrid model, a combination of the manifold learning Principal Components (PC) technique and the traditional multiple regression (PC-regression), for short and medium-term forecasting of daily, aggregated, day-ahead, electricity system-wide load in the Greek Electricity Market for the period 2004⁻2014. PC-regression is shown to effectively capture the intraday, intraweek and annual patterns of load. We compare our model with a number of classical statistical approaches (Holt-Winters exponential smoothing of its generalizations Error-Trend-Seasonal, ETS models, the Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variables, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous (SARIMAX) model as well as with the more sophisticated artificial intelligence models, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Using a number of criteria for measuring the quality of the generated in-and out-of-sample forecasts, we have concluded that the forecasts of our hybrid model outperforms the ones generated by the other model, with the SARMAX model being the next best performing approach, giving comparable results. Our approach contributes to studies aimed at providing more accurate and reliable load forecasting, prerequisites for an efficient management of modern power systems.
Keywords
electricity load, exponential smoothing, forecasting, principal components analysis, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous (SARIMAX)
Suggested Citation
Papaioannou GP, Dikaiakos C, Dramountanis A, Papaioannou PG. Analysis and Modeling for Short- to Medium-Term Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Manifold Learning Principal Component Model and Comparison with Classical Statistical Models (SARIMAX, Exponential Smoothing) and Artificial Intelligence Models (ANN, SVM): Th. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0154
Author Affiliations
Papaioannou GP: Research, Technology & Development Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 89 Dyrrachiou & Kifisou Str. Gr, Athens 10443, Greece; Center for Research and Applications in Nonlinear Systems (CRANS), Department of Mathematics, Univer
Dikaiakos C: Research, Technology & Development Department, Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) S.A., 89 Dyrrachiou & Kifisou Str. Gr, Athens 10443, Greece; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Patras, Patras 26500, Greece
Dramountanis A: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Patras, Patras 26500, Greece
Papaioannou PG: Applied Mathematics and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou 15780, Greece
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
8
Article Number
E635
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-08-16
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en9080635, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0154
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doi:10.3390/en9080635
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Jan 30, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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