LAPSE:2019.0152
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0152
Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting
Xuejiao Ma, Dandan Liu
January 30, 2019
Big data mining, analysis, and forecasting play vital roles in modern economic and industrial fields, especially in the energy system. Inaccurate forecasting may cause wastes of scarce energy or electricity shortages. However, forecasting in the energy system has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors, such as high fluctuations, autocorrelation and stochastic volatility. To forecast time series data by using hybrid models is a feasible alternative of conventional single forecasting modelling approaches. This paper develops a group of hybrid models to solve the problems above by eliminating the noise in the original data sequence and optimizing the parameters in a back propagation neural network. One of contributions of this paper is to integrate the existing algorithms and models, which jointly show advances over the present state of the art. The results of comparative studies demonstrate that the hybrid models proposed not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but also can be an effective tool in the planning and dispatching of smart grids.
Keywords
comparative study, energy system, forecasting validity degree, optimization algorithms, time series forecasting
Suggested Citation
Ma X, Liu D. Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0152
Author Affiliations
Ma X: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China [ORCID]
Liu D: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
8
Article Number
E640
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-08-16
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9080640, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0152
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doi:10.3390/en9080640
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Jan 30, 2019
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CC BY 4.0
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Jan 30, 2019
 
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Calvin Tsay
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