LAPSE:2018.0934
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0934
Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case
Antonio Bello, Javier Reneses, Antonio Muñoz
November 27, 2018
One of the most relevant challenges that have arisen in electricity markets during the last few years is the emergence of extremely low prices. Trying to predict these events is crucial for market agents in a competitive environment. This paper proposes a novel methodology to simultaneously accomplish punctual and probabilistic hourly predictions about the appearance of extremely low electricity prices in a medium-term scope. The proposed approach for making real ex ante forecasts consists of a nested compounding of different forecasting techniques, which incorporate Monte Carlo simulation, combined with spatial interpolation techniques. The procedure is based on the statistical identification of the process key drivers. Logistic regression for rare events, decision trees, multilayer perceptrons and a hybrid approach, which combines a market equilibrium model with logistic regression, are used. Moreover, this paper assesses whether periodic models in which parameters switch according to the day of the week can be even more accurate. The proposed techniques are compared to a Markov regime switching model and several naive methods. The proposed methodology empirically demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving promising results on a real case study based on the Spanish electricity market. This approach can provide valuable information for market agents when they face decision making and risk-management processes. Our findings support the additional benefit of using a hybrid approach for deriving more accurate predictions.
Keywords
electricity markets, extremely low prices, hybrid approach, medium-term electricity price forecasting, probabilistic forecasting, spikes
Suggested Citation
Bello A, Reneses J, Muñoz A. Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0934
Author Affiliations
Bello A: Institute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid 28015, Spain
Reneses J: Institute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid 28015, Spain [ORCID]
Muñoz A: Institute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid 28015, Spain
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
3
Article Number
E193
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-03-15
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9030193, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2018.0934
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doi:10.3390/en9030193
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Nov 27, 2018
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CC BY 4.0
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Nov 27, 2018
 
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Calvin Tsay
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