LAPSE:2018.0933
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0933
Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability
Roberto Langella, Daniela Proto, Alfredo Testa
November 27, 2018
Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.
Keywords
daily variability, forecasting, instantaneous variability, parametric distributions, solar irradiance, solar radiation, statistical methods, time series generation
Suggested Citation
Langella R, Proto D, Testa A. Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0933
Author Affiliations
Langella R: Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples via Roma n. 29, Aversa 81031, Italy [ORCID]
Proto D: Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio, n. 21, Napoli 80125, Italy
Testa A: Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples via Roma n. 29, Aversa 81031, Italy
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
3
Article Number
E200
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-03-15
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9030200, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2018.0933
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doi:10.3390/en9030200
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Nov 27, 2018
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CC BY 4.0
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Nov 27, 2018
 
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Calvin Tsay
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