LAPSE:2018.0843
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0843
Probability Density Function Characterization for Aggregated Large-Scale Wind Power Based on Weibull Mixtures
November 16, 2018
The Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power data are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.
Keywords
Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Weibull distributions, Weibull mixtures, wind power generation
Suggested Citation
Gómez-Lázaro E, Bueso MC, Kessler M, Martín-Martínez S, Zhang J, Hodge BM, Molina-García A. Probability Density Function Characterization for Aggregated Large-Scale Wind Power Based on Weibull Mixtures. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0843
Author Affiliations
Gómez-Lázaro E: Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete 02071, Spain [ORCID]
Bueso MC: Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena 30202, Spain
Kessler M: Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena 30202, Spain [ORCID]
Martín-Martínez S: Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete 02071, Spain [ORCID]
Zhang J: Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA
Hodge BM: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Molina-García A: Department of Electrical Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena 30202, Spain [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
2
Article Number
E91
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-02-02
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en9020091, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2018.0843
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doi:10.3390/en9020091
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Nov 16, 2018
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CC BY 4.0
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Nov 16, 2018
 
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Calvin Tsay
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