LAPSE:2018.0750
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0750
Hybrid Wind Speed Prediction Based on a Self-Adaptive ARIMAX Model with an Exogenous WRF Simulation
Erdong Zhao, Jing Zhao, Liwei Liu, Zhongyue Su, Ning An
October 22, 2018
Wind speed forecasting is difficult not only because of the influence of atmospheric dynamics but also for the impossibility of providing an accurate prediction with traditional statistical forecasting models that work by discovering an inner relationship within historical records. This paper develops a self-adaptive (SA) auto-regressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) model that is optimized very-short-term by the chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm, known as the SA-ARIMA-CPSO approach, for wind speed prediction. The ARIMAX model chooses the wind speed result from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation as an exogenous input variable. Further, an SA strategy is applied to the ARIMAX process. When new information is available, the model process can be updated adaptively with parameters optimized by the CPSO algorithm. The proposed SA-ARIMA-CPSO approach enables the forecasting process to update training information and model parameters intelligently and adaptively. As tested using the 15-min wind speed data collected from a wind farm in Northern China, the improved method has the best performance compared with several other models.
Keywords
ARIMAX, self-adaptive strategy, wind speed, WRF simulation
Suggested Citation
Zhao E, Zhao J, Liu L, Su Z, An N. Hybrid Wind Speed Prediction Based on a Self-Adaptive ARIMAX Model with an Exogenous WRF Simulation. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0750
Author Affiliations
Zhao E: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Zhao J: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Liu L: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Su Z: College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
An N: Gerontechnology Lab, School of Computer and Information, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
1
Article Number
E7
Year
2015
Publication Date
2015-12-24
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9010007, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2018.0750
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doi:10.3390/en9010007
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Oct 22, 2018
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CC BY 4.0
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Oct 22, 2018
 
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Calvin Tsay
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