LAPSE:2018.0277
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0277
Multistage Stochastic Programming Models for Pharmaceutical Clinical Trial Planning
Zuo Zeng, Selen Cremaschi
July 31, 2018
Clinical trial planning of candidate drugs is an important task for pharmaceutical companies. In this paper, we propose two new multistage stochastic programming formulations (CM1 and CM2) to determine the optimal clinical trial plan under uncertainty. Decisions of a clinical trial plan include which clinical trials to start and their start times. Its objective is to maximize expected net present value of the entire clinical trial plan. Outcome of a clinical trial is uncertain, i.e., whether a potential drug successfully completes a clinical trial is not known until the clinical trial is completed. This uncertainty is modeled using an endogenous uncertain parameter in CM1 and CM2. The main difference between CM1 and CM2 is an additional binary variable, which tracks both start and end time points of clinical trials in CM2. We compare the sizes and solution times of CM1 and CM2 with each other and with a previously developed formulation (CM3) using different instances of clinical trial planning problem. The results reveal that the solution times of CM1 and CM2 are similar to each other and are up to two orders of magnitude shorter compared to CM3 for all instances considered. In general, the root relaxation problems of CM1 and CM2 took shorter to solve, CM1 and CM2 yielded tight initial gaps, and the solver required fewer branches for convergence to the optimum for CM1 and CM2.
Keywords
clinical trial planning, endogenous uncertainty, mixed-integer programming, multistage stochastic programming, optimization under uncertainty
Suggested Citation
Zeng Z, Cremaschi S. Multistage Stochastic Programming Models for Pharmaceutical Clinical Trial Planning. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0277
Author Affiliations
Zeng Z: Department of Chemical Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
Cremaschi S: Department of Chemical Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA [ORCID]
[Login] to see author email addresses.
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
5
Issue
4
Article Number
E71
Year
2017
Publication Date
2017-11-09
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: pr5040071, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2018.0277
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/pr5040071
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (1.9 MB)
Jul 31, 2018
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
815
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Jul 31, 2018
 
Verified by curator on
Jul 31, 2018
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2018.0277
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version